A farmer tilling the soil with a hand tool as others plough their fields using bullocks at Karad, in Satara district, Maharashtra. (PTI Photo)

MUMBAI: A rare convergence of an Adhik Jyeshtha month in the Hindu calendar and a powerful Super El Niño has raised concerns over the progress of this year’s monsoon in Maharashtra, with an analysis of historical data suggesting an increased risk of delayed rains and below-normal rainfall.The analysis, based on 76 years of data from 1951 to 2026, was initiated by Ketan Pathak, media advisor to Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, using artificial intelligence platforms Claude and ChatGPT to study past climate patterns. While the findings point to a historical correlation, they do not establish that the astronomical event itself causes weak monsoons.For millions of farmers, urban residents and water managers across Maharashtra, the timing and intensity of the monsoon determine everything from crop sowing and drinking water availability to reservoir levels, hydropower generation and relief from prolonged summer heat.According to the analysis, an Adhik Maas—an extra lunar month inserted roughly every three years to synchronise the lunar and solar calendars—may influence the seasonal calendar when it occurs early in the year as Adhik Jyeshtha. This effectively extends the peak summer period before the southwest monsoon normally advances over the state.Pathak said the prolonged Jyeshtha period lengthens the intense pre-monsoon heat, increases aridity and may contribute to a delay in the onset of seasonal winds. “This is a profound observation rooted in traditional knowledge that aligns with modern meteorology. An Adhik Jyeshtha inherently extends the intense pre-monsoon summer, compounding dry conditions and delaying the monsoon’s arrival,” he said.The concern becomes greater when such an extended dry spell coincides with El Niño—a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that has long been associated with weaker Indian monsoons. El Niño events do not invariably produce drought, but they are recognised as one of the factors that can suppress rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.The historical assessment found that, of the 76 years studied, 28 witnessed an Adhik Maas, 22 were El Niño years, and both events coincided in 12 years. Of these 12 overlapping years, only five recorded normal rainfall, while seven experienced deficient rainfall or drought conditions, suggesting a historical probability of about 58% of below-normal rainfall during such years.The study also noted that the risk appeared higher when the extra lunar month fell early in the monsoon cycle—during Jyeshtha or Ashadha—than when it occurred later in Shravan or Bhadrapada.With Maharashtra already witnessing weather uncertainties this season, the findings are likely to fuel interest in how traditional calendar observations may complement scientific climate analysis. However, meteorologists generally emphasise that the strength and distribution of the southwest monsoon depend on multiple interacting factors, including ocean temperatures, atmospheric circulation and regional weather systems. They caution that seasonal rainfall cannot be forecast on the basis of any single parameter alone.

Mumbai: Eleven teachers from two convent schools in Santacruz (East) were booked on Wednesday for not reporting for duty as booth level officers (BLOs) as part of the special intensive revision (SIR) exercise to verify the voter list.The case was registered on a complaint received from Bandu Raut (56), assistant electoral registration officer (ERO), appointed for assembly constituency number 175, which comes under Kalina in Santacruz (East), after he said none of the teachers responded to his summons notice issued on July 7.“The teachers were booked under the Representation of the People Act Section 32 for breach of official duty in connection with the preparation of electoral rolls and under the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita Section 223 for intentional disobedience of a lawful order promulgated by a public servant. Notices will be served and their statements will be recorded,” said a police officer of the Vakola police station.Raut in the FIR said that a reminder was sent to teachers for participating in the process on July 7. “They deliberately disobeyed the orders. Therefore, the ERO and deputy collector, Mumbai suburban, have authorised me to file a complaint,” said Raut in the FIR.The electoral office had instructed the teachers to be present for the BLO work at the booth or polling centre by 10 am, which is during school working hours. Except for a junior clerk, the 11 teachers from the two schools remained absent from duty by disobeying the lawful orders of ERO, said the FIR.One of the 11 teachers told TOI on Friday that being assigned election-related work at this stage would disrupt classes, as they are already struggling to complete the syllabus ahead of the exams. Most of the teachers booked are teaching Class 10 students.The teachers who spoke to TOI said that many of them were under tremendous stress and they were struggling to manage teaching as well as BLO duty. “We even end up shouting at students, and parents are also questioning us for not completing the syllabus. Teachers said they were also not relieved by the schools from their daily teaching work, which starts early in the day and lasts till late afternoon.Another teacher, Shaikh Yasin Mohammad, told TOI, “I have been on medical leave for the last two weeks. and submitted the medical report of my surgery. I have been granted leave and was told that I am exempted for the BLO work.”Two teachers said the electoral office did not accept their written submission explaining their problems.“No one is even ready to listen to us. Only notices are issued to us for and finally an FIR is registered against us without realising that we have to complete our portions as exams are nearing and parents are complaining that we are not giving time to students and not completing the subjects,” said Ajay Khaire, an assistant teacher.Another assistant teacher, Suresh Sahu said, “The collector accepted our submissions. But the election office is not ready to listen. We are ready to do BLO work if they are ready to give relaxation in the school duties. At present we are leaving our home early in the morning and completing school work till late afternoon. The additional BLO work is taking a toll on our health and even the stress is shown by way of shouting at students for no reason. We are unable to take care of our family. Parents are shouting at us for not covering portions properly as exams are nearing.”A school teacher from Vikhroli was admitted to hospital on Monday after allegedly attempting suicide by consuming sleeping pills.In June, three separate FIRs were registered against 14 school teachers from educational institutions in Borivli and Dahisar for not turning up for special intensive revision (SIR) duty and violating govt orders.

Pune/Mumbai: The rift in the NCP leadership showed signs of widening as just two days after the party’s working president Praful Patel and state chief Sunil Tatkare met CM Devendra Fadnavis without the knowledge of party chief Sunetra Pawar, her elder son and Rajya Sabha MP Parth Pawar met the CM on Thursday.Amid speculation that Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) may be tilting towards the NDA, the party’s former state chief Jayant Patil, who, like Patel and Tatkare, had also met Fadnavis on Tuesday night, conducted another meeting, this time with deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde, on Thursday night. Patil said on Friday that his meeting with Shinde was to discuss the disqualification of the president of Urun-Ishwarpur municipal council (from Sangli district). He had earlier said his meeting with the CM was to discuss the same issue.The series of meetings of politicians of the rival NCP groups with the CM and Dy CM has created a flutter in Maharashtra’s politics.On Parth’s meeting with Fadnavis, Tatkare on Friday said he was not aware about it. He added, “Parth is a young leader of our party, and he represents NCP in Rajya Sabha. I do not see anything odd in him meeting the CM.”The NCP is keen on getting a ministerial berth at the Centre if the NDA govt goes in for a cabinet reshuffle. According to sources, both Praful Patel and Parth Pawar are interested in a ministerial post, but there is no consensus on the matter in the party. In recent months, the rift between Sunetra Pawar and Parth on one side and Patel and Tatkare on the other has become increasingly apparent. Several within the party are also said to be unhappy with Parth, who has been tightening his grip on NCP affairs.Exposing the divide within, a letter written by NCP’s state vice-president Udaykumar Aher on July 13 to Dy CM Sunetra Pawar came to light on Friday. Aher suggested in the letter that Sunetra should request PM Modi that Parth be considered for a berth during expansion of the Union cabinet. Aher alleged that some within the party were trying to “spread misconceptions” about Parth with the aim of ending his political career.The letter stated, “Unfortunately misconceptions are being spread by certain individuals within our own ranks that Parth dada is incapable of delivering justice either to the party or the people. This is an open secret.” It added, “It is wrong to spread such misunderstandings about a leader who is only 38 years old and attempt to end his political career even before it even truly begins.”The letter also said that “an image has been created that Parth Pawar lacks political maturity.” Aher said that after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, which Parth lost, “deliberate efforts were made to demoralise him. He said he had requested Ajit Pawar to give him an appropriate opportunity, and he had decided to give him a “major responsibility.”Aher stated Parth’s inclusion in the Union cabinet would be a fitting response to those spreading allegations and misconceptions.The proximity of NCP (SP) with NDA members has also sparked fresh discussion on the possibility of a merger of the two NCP groups. Tatkare, who had earlier denied any such meetings on the merger, recently changed his stance and said he was aware of the discussion. The state NCP chief on Friday hinted further political developments were possible when he said that politics was never stagnant.NCP (SP) working president and MP Supriya Sule indicated two days ago that the party would consider supporting the NDA govt’s delimitation bill in Parliament if 50% of Lok Sabha seats are increased in all states across the country. Speaking about the possibility of some MPs from the opposition parties supporting the bill, Tatkare said changes in the political scenario could never be ruled out.“During the last Parliament session, the opposition showed unity and managed to keep 230 votes intact to defeat the bill. However, even before the next session, their votes are already split (with a number of TMC, Shiv Sena UBT MPs switching over). The political scenario always keeps changing, and nobody knows what lies ahead one-and-a-half months from now,” Tatkare said.

Mumbai: In a move set to impact millions of commuters across Maharashtra, the State Transport Authority (STA) on Friday approved a proposal by the Maharashtra State Road Transport Corporation (MSRTC) to increase bus fares by an average 13.5%. The revised fares will come into effect from Saturday, said an official.There is no change in fare for AC Shivneri buses, said the official.The fare revision comes amid mounting operational costs faced by the corporation, primarily due to the recent rise in diesel prices and an increase in the dearness allowance paid to employees.Sources said that the minimum bus fare for 6 km will increase from Rs 13 to Rs 15 once the fare rise is implemented.The latest increase marks the second major fare increase within a year for the state-run transport body. The MSRTC raised fares by nearly 15% last year, whereas fare revisions in the past were typically limited to around 4%-5% annually, said officials.Officials said the revised fare structure was necessary to offset growing expenditure and ensure the financial sustainability of the transport undertaking.The decision coincides with a broader phase of modernisation being undertaken by MSRTC. The corporation has been investing in initiatives aimed at improving passenger amenities, expanding its fleet, digitising services and enhancing overall operational efficiency.The fare hike comes against the backdrop of several new initiatives announced by MSRTC chairman Pratap Sarnaik. These include the expansion of electric and air-conditioned bus services and the rollout of the National Common Mobility Card (NCMC) system for concessionary travel from Aug 1. Women, senior citizens and beneficiaries under the Amrit scheme will be required to use NCMC smart cards to avail themselves of travel concessions.According to MSRTC officials, more than 62 lakh passengers have registered for the NCMC programme, with over 35 lakh cards activated so far. The smart card-based system is expected to streamline ticketing, reduce manual processing and improve concession management.One of India’s largest public transport undertakings, MSRTC operates around 16,000 buses, carries 55-60 lakh passengers daily, and manages 251 depots and more than 560 bus stations across Maharashtra. Its network serves as a crucial transport lifeline, connecting major cities, smaller towns and remote villages across the state.Sources said a meeting of the STA on the fare revision proposal, initially scheduled for Wednesday, was postponed and held on Friday, where the increase was approved.